yallknowdatg
06-03-2004, 05:24 AM
Ignoring Iraqi Death Toll Labelled a “Holocaust
Denial”
Letters to the Editor Gideon Polya.
Ignoring Iraqi Death Toll Labelled a
“Holocaust Denial” As the international debate about the outcome of last year’s war in Iraq
escalates, an Australian scientist has ignited the largely suppressed issue of the resulting death
toll.
American authorities have consistently refused to quote casualties other than
among Coalition troops (805 deaths, according to a current UN report). The UN puts the
deaths of Iraqi soldiers at 11,000, while estimates of the collateral deaths of Iraqi civilians from
the war have varied from 8,875-10,275 (UN) to 21,700-55,000 (Medact, UK, November 2003).
Now, in a conScience column in the June issue of Australasian Science magazine,
published today, Dr Gideon Polya reports calculations of another measure from the “excess
mortality” attributable to the war. He explains this is “the difference between the actual deaths
observed in a country and the mortality expected for a properly run, peaceful society with the
same demographics”.
Dr Polya has been researching and writing a scientific analysis of
global mortality. This involves summarising mortality and its causes for all parts of the world
throughout history. The ultimate aim is to address the avoidable human mortality that accounts
for the approximately 20 million people who die each year from deprivation and
malnourishment-related causes.
His startling estimate is that, for Iraq, excess mortality
and infant mortality are “currently of the order of 100,000 per year, or about 300 per day”.
“Excess mortality and infant mortality have declined dramatically for nearly all
developing countries outside Africa over the past 50 years. In Iraq, excess mortality and infant
mortality reached a minimum in the 1980s. However, this decline reversed after the 1991 Gulf
War.”
According to UNICEF, in 2001 the under-5 infant mortality was 109,000 in Iraq,
which has a population of about 24 million, compared with about 1,000 in Australia (pop. about
20 million).
“The total excess mortality in Iraq, calculated using United Nations data, is
5.2 million since 1950 and 1.5 million for the period 1991–2004”, Dr Polya writes. “The huge
excess mortality in Iraq since 1950 is similar in magnitude to that of the Jewish Holocaust (6
million victims) and the ‘forgotten’ manmade World War II Bengal Famine (4 million Muslim and
Hindu victims).”
Dr Polya recently retired as a senior biochemist at La Trobe University.
Deploring the lack of reporting of the real death toll in Iraq, he concludes: “The occupying
Coalition, including Australia, is clearly responsible for the continuing excess mortality and infant
mortality in Iraq . . . Ignoring mass human mortality in Iraq amounts to holocaust denial.”
Please cite AUSTRALASIAN SCIENCE MAGAZINE as the source of this story.
CONTACTS Dr Gideon Polya on (03) 9459 3649 [+61 3 9459 3649].
The full
article can be downloaded as a PDF at www.control.com.au
For permission to
reproduce the full text (500 words) call the Editor, Guy Nolch, on
(03) 9500 0015 [+61
3 9500 0015].
A photo of Dr Polya in his lab is available on request.
FULL
TEXT OF COLUMN BY DR POLYA:
conScience
Iraqi Death Toll Amounts to
a Holocaust
Gideon Polya calculates the “excess mortality” as a result of the invasion
and occupation of Iraq
Whether a person dies violently or in bed, any death that is
avoidable requires public assessment of causality, culpability and complicity in order to make
the world a safer place. Of course, whether a person dies violently or dies from avoidable
disease or deprivation, the end result is the same.
I have been researching and writing
a careful analysis of global mortality. My scientific analysis involves summarizing mortality and
its causes for all parts of the world throughout history. The ultimate aim of this analysis is to
address the avoidable human mortality that accounts for the approximately 20 million people
who die each year from deprivation and malnourishment-related causes.
My analysis is
powerfully illustrated by the situation in Iraq. The UK has been militarily involved in Iraq on and
off for 90 years and the largely Anglo-American Coalition has been combating Iraqis since
1991.
Whatever our positions on Iraq, we are morally obliged to assess the actual
human cost of our involvement there. One powerful approach is to estimate “excess mortality”,
which is the difference between the actual deaths observed in a country and the mortality
expected for a properly run, peaceful society with the same demographics.
The total
excess mortality in Iraq, calculated using United Nations data, is 5.2 million since 1950 and 1.5
million for the period 1991-2004.
The huge excess mortality in Iraq since 1950 is similar
in magnitude to that of the Jewish Holocaust (six million victims) and the “forgotten”, man-made,
World War II Bengal Famine (four million Muslim and Hindu victims).
My estimates of
excess mortality for Iraq are consistent with the under-5 infant mortality in Iraq, estimated from
UNICEF data to be 3.3 million since 1950 and 1.2 million in the period 1991-2004.
Excess mortality and infant mortality have declined dramatically for nearly all
developing countries outside Africa over the past 50 years. In Iraq, excess mortality and infant
mortality reached a minimum in the 1980s. However, this decline reversed after the 1991 Gulf
War.
According to UNICEF, in 2001 the under-5 infant mortality was 109,000 in Iraq,
which has a population of about 24 million, compared with about 1,000 in Australia, which has
a population of about 20 million.
Rulers are responsible for the ruled. Accordingly the
occupying Coalition, including Australia, is clearly responsible for the continuing excess
mortality and infant mortality in Iraq. Both are estimated to be currently of the order of 100,000
per year, or about 300 per day.
John Valder, a former president of the Liberal Party,
has recently called for war crimes trials of the leaders of the Coalition, adducing the illegality of
the invasion of Iraq (The Age, 9 April, 2004). Mass mortality in a conquered population also
constitutes a war crime, as well as a humanitarian tragedy.
The actual Iraqi death toll is
not being reported and publicly discussed. Ignoring mass human mortality in Iraq amounts to
holocaust denial.
Dr Gideon Polya recently retired as a senior biochemist at La Trobe
University. He is the author of the pharmacological reference Biochemical Targets of Plant
Bioactive Compounds. conScience is a column for Australians to express forthright views on
national issues. Views expressed are those of the author.
Denial”
Letters to the Editor Gideon Polya.
Ignoring Iraqi Death Toll Labelled a
“Holocaust Denial” As the international debate about the outcome of last year’s war in Iraq
escalates, an Australian scientist has ignited the largely suppressed issue of the resulting death
toll.
American authorities have consistently refused to quote casualties other than
among Coalition troops (805 deaths, according to a current UN report). The UN puts the
deaths of Iraqi soldiers at 11,000, while estimates of the collateral deaths of Iraqi civilians from
the war have varied from 8,875-10,275 (UN) to 21,700-55,000 (Medact, UK, November 2003).
Now, in a conScience column in the June issue of Australasian Science magazine,
published today, Dr Gideon Polya reports calculations of another measure from the “excess
mortality” attributable to the war. He explains this is “the difference between the actual deaths
observed in a country and the mortality expected for a properly run, peaceful society with the
same demographics”.
Dr Polya has been researching and writing a scientific analysis of
global mortality. This involves summarising mortality and its causes for all parts of the world
throughout history. The ultimate aim is to address the avoidable human mortality that accounts
for the approximately 20 million people who die each year from deprivation and
malnourishment-related causes.
His startling estimate is that, for Iraq, excess mortality
and infant mortality are “currently of the order of 100,000 per year, or about 300 per day”.
“Excess mortality and infant mortality have declined dramatically for nearly all
developing countries outside Africa over the past 50 years. In Iraq, excess mortality and infant
mortality reached a minimum in the 1980s. However, this decline reversed after the 1991 Gulf
War.”
According to UNICEF, in 2001 the under-5 infant mortality was 109,000 in Iraq,
which has a population of about 24 million, compared with about 1,000 in Australia (pop. about
20 million).
“The total excess mortality in Iraq, calculated using United Nations data, is
5.2 million since 1950 and 1.5 million for the period 1991–2004”, Dr Polya writes. “The huge
excess mortality in Iraq since 1950 is similar in magnitude to that of the Jewish Holocaust (6
million victims) and the ‘forgotten’ manmade World War II Bengal Famine (4 million Muslim and
Hindu victims).”
Dr Polya recently retired as a senior biochemist at La Trobe University.
Deploring the lack of reporting of the real death toll in Iraq, he concludes: “The occupying
Coalition, including Australia, is clearly responsible for the continuing excess mortality and infant
mortality in Iraq . . . Ignoring mass human mortality in Iraq amounts to holocaust denial.”
Please cite AUSTRALASIAN SCIENCE MAGAZINE as the source of this story.
CONTACTS Dr Gideon Polya on (03) 9459 3649 [+61 3 9459 3649].
The full
article can be downloaded as a PDF at www.control.com.au
For permission to
reproduce the full text (500 words) call the Editor, Guy Nolch, on
(03) 9500 0015 [+61
3 9500 0015].
A photo of Dr Polya in his lab is available on request.
FULL
TEXT OF COLUMN BY DR POLYA:
conScience
Iraqi Death Toll Amounts to
a Holocaust
Gideon Polya calculates the “excess mortality” as a result of the invasion
and occupation of Iraq
Whether a person dies violently or in bed, any death that is
avoidable requires public assessment of causality, culpability and complicity in order to make
the world a safer place. Of course, whether a person dies violently or dies from avoidable
disease or deprivation, the end result is the same.
I have been researching and writing
a careful analysis of global mortality. My scientific analysis involves summarizing mortality and
its causes for all parts of the world throughout history. The ultimate aim of this analysis is to
address the avoidable human mortality that accounts for the approximately 20 million people
who die each year from deprivation and malnourishment-related causes.
My analysis is
powerfully illustrated by the situation in Iraq. The UK has been militarily involved in Iraq on and
off for 90 years and the largely Anglo-American Coalition has been combating Iraqis since
1991.
Whatever our positions on Iraq, we are morally obliged to assess the actual
human cost of our involvement there. One powerful approach is to estimate “excess mortality”,
which is the difference between the actual deaths observed in a country and the mortality
expected for a properly run, peaceful society with the same demographics.
The total
excess mortality in Iraq, calculated using United Nations data, is 5.2 million since 1950 and 1.5
million for the period 1991-2004.
The huge excess mortality in Iraq since 1950 is similar
in magnitude to that of the Jewish Holocaust (six million victims) and the “forgotten”, man-made,
World War II Bengal Famine (four million Muslim and Hindu victims).
My estimates of
excess mortality for Iraq are consistent with the under-5 infant mortality in Iraq, estimated from
UNICEF data to be 3.3 million since 1950 and 1.2 million in the period 1991-2004.
Excess mortality and infant mortality have declined dramatically for nearly all
developing countries outside Africa over the past 50 years. In Iraq, excess mortality and infant
mortality reached a minimum in the 1980s. However, this decline reversed after the 1991 Gulf
War.
According to UNICEF, in 2001 the under-5 infant mortality was 109,000 in Iraq,
which has a population of about 24 million, compared with about 1,000 in Australia, which has
a population of about 20 million.
Rulers are responsible for the ruled. Accordingly the
occupying Coalition, including Australia, is clearly responsible for the continuing excess
mortality and infant mortality in Iraq. Both are estimated to be currently of the order of 100,000
per year, or about 300 per day.
John Valder, a former president of the Liberal Party,
has recently called for war crimes trials of the leaders of the Coalition, adducing the illegality of
the invasion of Iraq (The Age, 9 April, 2004). Mass mortality in a conquered population also
constitutes a war crime, as well as a humanitarian tragedy.
The actual Iraqi death toll is
not being reported and publicly discussed. Ignoring mass human mortality in Iraq amounts to
holocaust denial.
Dr Gideon Polya recently retired as a senior biochemist at La Trobe
University. He is the author of the pharmacological reference Biochemical Targets of Plant
Bioactive Compounds. conScience is a column for Australians to express forthright views on
national issues. Views expressed are those of the author.